The J curve

For nations engaged in Nation Building and Freedom Spreading, it is important to understand how nations rise and fall.
Indeed, freedom doesn't necessarily bring stability as the situation in Iraq can demonstrate.
Sanctions only help and reinforce the dictators in place (Cf Iran).
And this is why the leaders who spread this idea are either fools or ignorants and must be stopped!

Here is a little excerpt:
"There is a counterintuitive relationship between a nation'’s stability and its openness, both to the influences of the outside world and within its borders. Certain states (—North Korea, Burma, Belarus, Zimbabwe) —are stable precisely because they are closed. The slightest influence on their citizens from the outside could push the most rigid of these states toward dangerous instability. If half the people of North Korea saw 20 minutes of CNN (or of al Jazeera for that matter), they would realize how egregiously their government lies to them about life beyond the walls. That realization would provoke widespread social upheaval. The slightest improvement in the ability of a country'’s citizens to communicate with one another (—the introduction of telephones, email, or text-messaging into an authoritarian state) —can likewise undermine the state'’s monopoly on information.
Other states (the United States, Japan, Sweden) —are stable because they are invigorated by the forces of globalization. These states are able to withstand political conflict, because their citizens -—and international investors- —know that political and social problems within them will be peacefully resolved by institutions that are independent of one another and that the electorate will broadly accept the resolution as legitimate. The institutions, not the personalities, matter in such a state.
Yet, for a country that is -stable because it is closed”- to become a country that is -“stable because it is open,-” it must go through a transitional period of dangerous instability. Some states, like South Africa, survive that journey. Others, like Yugoslavia, collapse. It is more important than ever to recognize the dangers implicit in these processes. In a world of lightning-fast capital flight, social unrest, weapons of mass destruction, and transnational terrorism, these transformations are everybody'’s business."

Here is another one explaining a bit more what the J curve really is:
"The J Curve” is a tool designed to help policymakers develop more insightful and effective foreign policies. It is meant to help investors understand the risks they face as they invest abroad. It is also intended to help anyone curious about international politics better understand how leaders make decisions and the impact of those choices on the global order. As a model of political risk, the J curve can help us predict how states will respond to political and economic shocks, and where their vulnerabilities lie as globalization erodes the stability of authoritarian states.
What is the J curve? Imagine a graph on which the vertical axis measures stability and the horizontal axis measures political and economic openness to the outside world. Each nation whose level of stability and openness we want to measure appears as a data point on the graph. These data points, representing a cross-section of countries, produce a ‘J’ shape. Nations to the left of the dip in the J are less open; nations to the right are more open. Nations higher on the graph are more stable; those that are lower are less stable.
Openness is a measure of the extent to which a nation is in harmony with the crosscurrents of globalization -the processes by which people, ideas, information, goods, and services cross international borders at unprecedented speed. How many books written in a foreign language are translated into the local language? What percentage of a nation'’s citizens have access to media outlets whose signals originate from beyond their borders? How many are able to make an international phone call? How much direct contact do local people have with foreigners? How free are a nation'’s citizens to travel abroad? How much foreign direct investment is there in the country? How much local money is invested outside the country? How much cross-border trade exists? There are many more such questions.
But openness also refers to the flow of information and ideas within a country'’s borders. Are citizens free to communicate freely with one another? Do they have access to information about events in other regions of the country? Are freedoms of speech and of assembly legally established? How transparent are the processes of local and national government? Are there free flows of trade across regions within the state? Do citizens have access to, and influence in, the processes of governance?
Stability has two crucial components: the state'’s capacity to withstand shocks and its ability to avoid producing them. A nation is only unstable if both are absent. Saudi Arabia remains stable because, while it has produced numerous shocks over the last decade, it has so far ridden out the tremors. The House of Saud is likely to continue to absorb political shocks without buckling for the next several years. Kazakhstan is stable for the opposite reason. Its capacity to withstand a major political earthquake is questionable but, over the course of its 15-year history as a sovereign state, it hasn't created its own political crises. How Kazakhstan might withstand a near-term political shock, should one occur, is far more open to question than in Saudi Arabia —where the real stability challenges are much longer-term. "

Official page, here.
Interview with the author, here.


Posted in: _Democracy , _Geopolitics , _Society